Arkansas Early Voting Report

Mrs. Archaeoperyx and I just returned from the county courthouse where we cast our ballots on one of those infernal touchscreen machines. We both voted against the gay-hate initiative (to make it illegal for unmarried (code for "gay") couples to act as foster parents). We cancelled each other out on a state lottery (she's for it, and I'm agin' it). We registered our Green-Party-protest votes against our Democratic Senator (a DINO and professed creationist who loves him some Joe Lieberman) and our Democratic Representative (he wants to drill ANWR). Not another single candidate on our ballots with an opponent, so screw 'em. As my mom used to say, they only need one vote, and they won't get it from me.

Oh, yeah, there was that other race. As we walked up to the courthouse a family of black people came out--a mom and three kids. The oldest daughter was wearing a cheerleader outfit, but she might have been old enough to cast her first ballot. If so, she had never voted in a presidential election where a black man wasn't favored to win. Inside, there were two voting machines. At one of the machines was a black man in his late fifties or early sixties. At the other was one of my colleagues. I knew how both men were voting--same way as me. I joked with the poll workers, "How much does it cost to vote again?"

As we finished, a white couple came in to cast their ballots. Maybe late thirties or early forties. Were they cancelling out our votes? As we walked out the door of the courthouse, we passed a black woman who might have been seventy. She smiled at me.

It's All Over But the Crying. And the Burial.

Obama is up in the national polls an average of 6 percent or so.  The number of people who represent themselves as undecided is about 5 percent.  I think even the stupidest of us can do the math.

"Oh," you might say, "McCain and Palin may be able to get people to change their minds."  Maybe.

Not likely.

McCain may be able to shift the polls back in his direction a bit.  As the standard-bearer for the Republican Party, it's his duty to try to do so--for him to completely give up now would be a disaster for the down-ticket Republicans.  Races that seemed uncompetitive just a month a go--Liddy Dole and Mitch McConnell for example--are suddenly toss-ups.  Even such Republican strongholds as Texas and Mississippi are tightening up.  Those GOP incumbents desperately need their base to turn out.  But McCain has shown himself to be contemptuous and detached from the rank-and-file of the Republican Party, and he is a lackluster campaigner at best.  As it continues to sink in that he has no chance to win, he may completely fold up his tent.  Suddenly, the idea of a filibuster-proof Senate seems less like a pipe dream. 

Several pundits (including some of Slate's writers) have predicted the death of the Republican Party.  When these articles first started appearing last spring, I dismissed them.  I thought what we were seeing was the normal ebb-and-flow of political fortunes.  But the performance of the McCain campaign has been abysmal.  Perhaps the Republican machine has been hampered to a large degree by the erratic behavior of their nominee, but surely McCain is more intelligent, more competent, more presidential than the former governor of Texas?  Is there nobody left in the campaign who would explain why it's important to vet your vice-presidential pick?  Nobody who might object to shutting down your convention?  Nobody who might suggest that antagonizing a press corps that is inherently partial toward you is a bad idea?  These are the heirs of Karl Rove and Lee Atwater?

McCain's defeat, especially if accompanied by a thrashing in the Senate and House races, will leave the Republican Party is a state of disarray unimaginable only a few years ago.  Who do they have left who will lead them?  Mike Huckabee?  Fred Thompson? Sarah Palin?

Why Obama Won the Debate

Immediately after the debate was over, I thought that Obama had probably forced a tie, and that since he was leading in the polls, and McCain's recent behavior could charitably be described as erratic, that a tie translated to a win for Obama.

Imagine my surprise Saturday morning when I read the news sites, to find that all the focus groups, and many of the pundits, had declared Obama the winner. And not even a close winner, but winner by a large margin. While I'm thrilled to hear it, it took me a while to figure out why.

And then it hit me. People are desperately hungry for change. Recent polls have shown that the current administration has an approval rating of 29%. But voters barely know Obama. The Right Wing Noise Machine has been extremely busy painting Obama as a risky, inexperienced neophyte, and, you know, a black guy, absolutely unready to serve as president. Friday night, Obama showed up in a business suit instead of a track suit, he didn't speak in rhyme, and he demonstrated a wide knowledge of every subject that he was asked about. In other words, he's a perfectly acceptable candidate for president. And he's not a Republican. He hasn't spent the last eight years voting for every important Bush program, and indeed, campaigning for Bush.

In other words, Obama won the debate because the American people desperately needed and wanted him to win the debate.

For all practical purposes, this election is over.

Barack Obama for President--of Arkansas

A week ago Saturday, Mrs. Archaeopteryx and I drove up to Pine Bluff to buy a few gewgaws at Lowe's, and to have lunch at Chili's. I wore an Obama 08 t-shirt. Several people stopped me to ask where I'd gotten my shirt. Some were black, some were white. That night at dinner back in Monticello, a man came over to our table and said "I'd like to compliment that shirt." This past Saturday, the missus and I made our monthly trek up to Little Rock to hit Sam's, and Barnes and Noble, and to run a few other errands. Again I wore the t-shirt, and again, people walked up to me and commented on my shirt--it made me a celebrity. I stood in line at Sam's ahead of two old white ladies who were discussing their clearly fundamentalist Bible studies. One of them saw my shirt and said, "Where'd you get that? I've been looking for yard signs and can't find them." A middle-aged white guy walked up to me in Garden Ridge, and made me put down a double-armload of tailgating supplies (Go Weevils!) so that he could shake my hand. "We can't take another four years of the same stuff," he said.

My point--no need to write off Arkansas. Where is the state party on this? How come Governor Beebe isn't publicly supporting the nominee of the party? Maybe it's hopeless to think that Obama could win Arkansas, but it's important that he make a good showing. I understand that the national campaign has to concentrate its resources in the states where it will most likely produce results, but I give money to the state party, and I expect them to at least try to mobilize the electorate here. And, frankly, I think that a lot of people are overestimating the effects of racism in this race. Sure, there are a lot of old fuddy-duddies who wouldn't vote for a black man if he were running against Satan. There are also a lot of old white people who have enough sense to vote their interests, even if it means a brother in the White House. There is a huge amount of pent-up anger against the Republican regime, right here in Arkansas. Somebody should tap it.

Train Wreck

Creationist
Husband belonged to successionist party, she attended conventions.
Troopergate, abuse of power, lying
Lousy record as mayor--nearly faced recall, left city in debt
Fired city workers who did not offer political support
For abstinence-based sex ed, teen daughter pregnant, first child born eight months after wedding
Belongs to faux-feminist anti-feminist group
Spent most of life in a church that preached voting for Kerry would send you to hell
Global-warming denier
Foreign policy experience apparently limted to knowledge of Russia's proximity to Alaska
Fund-raiser, political partner of Ted Stevens
Lied about support of "Bridge to Nowhere"
Hired one of Jack Abramoff's lobbyists
Flew from Dallas to Seattle to Anchorage, then drove for an hour to allegedly give birth to a premature Down's baby.
Mother-in-law refuses to endorse
May have lied about being Miss Congeniality in Miss Wasilla Pageant
For drilling in ANWR
Against gay rights, even though "has some gay friends"
Opposed endangered-species status for polar bears, offered bounties on wolves to increase moose populations, shows a complete lack of understanding of wildlife ecology
Wanted to ban books from city library

NOTE: This post originally said that Palin herself was member of a successionist group, which party officials and voter registration records seem to deny.

McCain to Women: You're All the Same

John W. McCain has the whole world talking about his amazing, "history-making" choice of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential candidate. This is a woman who was elected governor of Alaska in 2006. She has roughly 18 months of experience. She's an anti-choice conservative. In other words, as far as policy goes, there's no reason whatsoever for any woman who considers hersef a feminist to vote for her--well, except for one. She is currently in possession of a vagina.

What is "history-making" about McCain's choice? Palin is not the first woman on a major-party ticket. Everyone seems to have forgotten about Geraldine Ferraro, who was excoriated by the Republicans as an unqualified gimmick, placed on the ticket, according to them, only because she was a woman. So, can there be any doubt that placing Palin on the ticket is a cynical attempt to attract disaffected Hillary supporters to the Republican ticket? I can already see the ads: "Hey Pumas! Vote for Palin! She's got ovaries, just like you!"

Here's what McCain is telling feminists: "I've picked a woman. Now, I know Hillary has spent her entire life in public service, and led all kinds of intiatives as First Lady of the Nation, and First Lady of Arkansas, and as a United States Senator. And she went through grueling campaign after campaign as a candidate and as a candidate's wife. Well, look! Sarah Palin was runner up as Miss Alaska! And that's exactly the same thing."

See, ladies, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter what you've accomplished in your life. It doesn't matter about your education, or experience, or your views on abortion, or civil rights, or really your views on anything. All that matters is that you have two X chromosomes. That's all that matters to us, and that's all that should matter to you.

Oh, yeah--Sarah Palin's really cute, isn't she?

UPDATE: Palin's a creationist.

UPDATE II: And a global warming crank.

Who's The Elitist?